I wouldn`t drop to a 7850, they are excellent cards yes, however I overclock, and to rely on TRIX or Afterburner to get the most overclock I can well that stinks :P
7870 would be the best pick of $/performance, however, 560Ti is the current card out there that takes that spot, outright performance/$ that belongs to the 7900 series, Nvidias current cards simply cannot touch them, but yes they are costly.
I look at it this way, I have a pretty overclocked 6870 and it plays all the current games at 1920x1080 60Hz just fine, some games like Skyrim or BF3 I cannot max out, for this the 560Ti is a step up and it should be (it is more $ after all) I can play medium/high settings on all games with my overclocked 955 and I get mid 70s constant frames, my buddy with 560ti easily gets in the mid 80s with higher settings same screen size/reso. So would a 7850/7870 or higher be overkill, well that depends, I like the concept of being able to max out every single game I play and it still has room for more, for this the current cards do lack a touch the 7k series and Kepler have some headroom both in power usage, temperatures, and most assuredely overclocking.
Comes down to the $ you have, if it has to be $300 or less, well 6950/560Ti/7850 are all in that range, 7850 is the fastest of those choices, if has to be below $400 570/560 448 core/6950/7870 definately the 7870 os the best choise, if money not much an issue, well 7970 by far is the best fastest card out there, who knows what Kepler will bring, the ONLY thing I have heard on Kepler is they pushed one number up, being the x50 becomes the x60(550=560) x60 becomes the x70(560=570) and so forth, apprently did this to make them more comparable to AMD offerings and to maximize thier costs/profit margin, but who knows either way, supposed to be march 14th or so we hear more I believe
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