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FiXT October 7, 2009 04:21 PM

Bullshit Warning: NVIDIA knocks off GTX285, GTX275, GTX260 [Charlie Demerjian]
 
If you haven't already stumbled across this on another forum, well here it is.

Pure Bullcrap. I've fielded a few questions of "Is It True, is NVIDIA really going under?" and for the love, if you hear someone ask, set them straight.

NVIDIA is alive and kicking and the company isn't going down the crapper any time soon from what I've heard. I haven't figured our CDej's purpose to the article aside from purely causing controversy and assisting is his furthering his asinine reputation but what ever.

There are snippets of truth filled in with the classic Inquirer style, read at your own peril. I take no responsibility for loss or damage you may sustain to brain cells.



Quote:

NVIDIA IS KILLING the GTX260, GTX275, and GTX285 with the GTX295 almost assured to follow as it (Nvidia: NVDA) abandons the high and mid range graphics card market. Due to a massive series of engineering failures, nearly all of the company's product line is financially under water, and mismanagement seems to be killing the company.

Not even an hour after we laid out the financial woes surrounding the Nvidia GTX275 and GTX260, word reached us that they are dead. Normally, this would be an update to the original article, but this news has enough dire implications that it needs its own story. Nvidia is in desperate shape, whoop-ass has turned to ash, and the wagons can't be circled any tighter.

Word from sources deep in the bowels of 2701 San Tomas Expressway tell us that the OEMs have been notified that the GTX285 is EOL'd, the GTX260 is EOL in November or December depending on a few extraneous issues, and the GTX275 will be EOL'd within 2 weeks. I would expect this to happen around the time ATI launches its Juniper based boards, so before October 22.

The lone survivor, maybe, is the GTX295, available only as a complete board from Nvidia. This is said to be almost impossible to get, likely for reasons we went into in the earlier financial article, cost. AIBs do not expect this product to last very long, likely until current stock is depleted.

Basically, engineering failure after engineering failure has left Nvidia without a high end part. It is left waving shells while trying desperately to convince the loyal press that it is real. While that is a problem for the future, the current concern is that it has nothing that can compete with ATI's Evergreen line, HD5870, HD5850, and the upcoming Junipers.

The G200b based parts can compete on performance, but not at a profit, so they are going to die. Nvidia was booted out of the high end market, and is now abandoning the mid range in a humbling retreat. Expect a similar backpedaling from the rest in January when Cedar and Redwood come out.

There are no half or quarter Fermi derivatives taped out yet, so at a bare minimum, Nvidia has nothing for 2 more quarters. To make matters worse, due to the obscene 530++mm^2 die size on TSMC's 40nm process, Fermi is almost twice the size of its competitor, Cypress/HD5870/HD5850. A cut down half version would cost less but still be barely competitive with Juniper. That chip would once again be vastly larger and more expensive than the ATI equivalents, and that is before board costs are examined. As the product stack waterfalls down, the ratios remain the same, Nvidia cannot be cost competitive for the Evergreen vs Fermi generation, period.

Massive engineering failures and cover-ups, starting with Bumpgate, have defined the company for the last two years. More recently, this includes the G212 failure, G214 fiasco and failure, now morphed into the G215 which is 3Q late so far, if it can ever be made profitably, and the G216 and G218 with the broken GDDR5 controllers. One or two failures are understandable, this many is flat out mismanagement.

As we have been saying all along, there is no savior chip, no plan B, they all failed. Nvidia can make chips and sell them at a loss, or retreat from those markets and lose less money. The only question now is whether or not it can fix its engineering problems and get competitive parts out before it runs out of cash. Given that the earliest that this can happen is next summer, it will be very touch and go.

Nvidia has alienated anyone who could be its friend, spawned needless lawsuits that very likely drive the company to a net negative value, and failed to sell the company while it still had a perception of worth. If you ask it, Nvidia will tell you that it is boldly turning itself into a vibrant GPU compute and cell phone chip giant. Should you want to remain in its good graces, this is not to be perceived as an exit strategy.

With the cancellation of the GTX285, GTX275, and GTX260, possibly the GTX295 too, Nvidia is abandoning the entire high end and mid-range graphics market. Expect a reprise in January on the low end. The company is badly mismanaged and hated by the very partners it needs to throw it a life preserver.

The only thing that can save Nvidia now is a wholesale replacement of top management. Sadly, the only people with enough shareholder leverage to do so are those very managers that need to go, so that is very unlikely. Unless there is a white knight or buyer in the wings, it is game over. At $1 per year, Jen-Hsun is overpaid.S|A

Written By: Charlie Demerjian
Source: Nvidia kills GTX285, GTX275, GTX260 - techPowerUp! Forums

I won't even bring myself to track the original source - I found it on TPU, you can follow it back and give the useless driveler's websites hits if you feel like you must

Squeetard October 7, 2009 04:59 PM

Jen-Hsun banged Charlie's wife. He's had a hate on ever since.

Put the authors name at the top of the article, save me reading it.

Perineum October 7, 2009 05:07 PM

Even if it was true there is no chance in hell that Nvidia is going anywhere. There are numerous people who would love to give Nvidia money as investment. I would.

Silvgearx October 7, 2009 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Perineum (Post 267315)
Even if it was true there is no chance in hell that Nvidia is going anywhere. There are numerous people who would love to give Nvidia money as investment. I would.

yea HWC could use some extra gtx295 for PPD :whistle:



....................its seems like some gtx 275 are going out of stock at some sites.

FiXT October 7, 2009 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5ILVgeARX (Post 267316)
its seems like some gtx 275 are going out of stock at some sites.

The EOL idea of the cards is about the only thing in there that is "semi accurate"
Obviously with the Fermi expansion likely sometime in 2010, the production of GT200 is going to slow considerably and obviously will eventually stop when they are able to round out the Fermi based lineup.

Coupled with the fact that ATI's new card is quite impressive when appropriately compared, retailers are taking a risk by overstocking the competing NVIDIA line at this point in time. So clearly sales and consequently production are going to dwindle. I could have predicted this a year ago!

All mfg's slow production and even cease it before a new launch, this is nothing new. Intel, AMD, ATI and NVIDIA and everyone else under the sun, this is not the disputed fact.

But the picture is he painting, that the company is going to cease production right away, is under finical burden which may have them closing shop on gaming focused GPU's, when right now, they are the leader in video graphics technology - give me a break Charlie.

NVIDIA clearly is focusing heavily on the GPU computing and CUDA aspect of these news cards, but the leader in graphics is hardly going to hedge their entire company on a whim that this will pan out and become the next best thing since sliced bread and revolutionize the marketplace.

Maybe I give the company more credit than they deserve, but it would be a piss poor business model to toss a billion dollars worth of eggs in one basket and hope for the best. The company wouldn't have gotten where it is today if that was their policy


NVIDIA Spokeperson has responded with this:
"We are not phasing out the products you list below [the GTX 260, GTX 275, and GTX 285] by the end of this year. We are in the process of transitioning to Fermi-class GPUs and, in time, phasing out existing products.

DkRk October 7, 2009 05:39 PM

The first two sentences are already enough for someone with even half a brain to know it's bullshit. It simply wouldn't make sense from a business point of view. Plus, ceasing production right away would be next to impossible, and their lawyers would likely get a few less than friendly calls from companies like Dell and suppliers like NewEgg.

chrisk October 7, 2009 06:06 PM

I love Charlie's stuff. I take little of it seriously but I still derive enjoyment from his writing.

SKYMTL October 7, 2009 06:31 PM

Considering the GTX 285's performance versus the HD 5850, all Nvidia needs is a bit of a price reduction.

Arinoth October 7, 2009 06:40 PM

Yep, my Bullshit meter is close to exploding from scanning the original article

Sushi Warrior October 7, 2009 07:22 PM

If I were Nvidia I wouldn't even bother dropping prices. The 58xx is in almost every way a superior card, save PhysX and CUDA. Nvidia is smart enough to know to wait for GT300 to release opposed to losing money selling GT200 cards.


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