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  #21 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 09:23 AM
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Durka the very fact that MS is already talking about Vista's replacement does not bode well for MS. The very idea that they will let you buy Vista and then legally downgrade it to XP means they have very little faith in it. Yes, XP blow'ed when it first came out. It was slower and more crash prone then 2k. BUT it did not have any serious competition and was allowed time to mature. Fast forward to 2008 and you have 1) Apple taking chunks out of MS's market share 2) 101 different Linuix's all taking small chunks of the market and worst of all 3) Fortune 500 companies are NOT upgrading to VISTA. That all adds up to a big ol' hurtin' for MS market share AND their "mind share".

Yes they have the money to withstand it and they are not going away anytime soon BUT you may see them end up like Novell. On the Server end of the market Novell used to be THE OS to know. Now...they are a walking corpse in comparison. How good will Ubuntu be in another 3 years (or pick your fav *NIX distro)? Look how far they have come in such a short time.

IF critical mass can be reached computer hardware & software companies will start taking the lil guys seriously and start developing good drivers for it. When that happens MS's biggest weapon (their "mind-share" i.e. the fact that everyone knows MS is the only "serious" OS for PCs) will disappear. Everyone loves to hate MS and if that paradigm shift does happen MS's next, NEXT OS maybe DOA.

Then it will be "Welcome to the brave new world"....all over again.

Of course maybe I'm just getting pessimistic in my old age; but many companies (especially top down companies like MS) have a hard time surviving when their "creator" retires.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 09:26 AM
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Wow AkG, that was an awsome post!!!

Great read, and summerizes everything i have been saying for years!
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AkG View Post
Durka the very fact that MS is already talking about Vista's replacement does not bode well for MS. The very idea that they will let you buy Vista and then legally downgrade it to XP means they have very little faith in it. Yes, XP blow'ed when it first came out. It was slower and more crash prone then 2k. BUT it did not have any serious competition and was allowed time to mature. Fast forward to 2008 and you have 1) Apple taking chunks out of MS's market share 2) 101 different Linuix's all taking small chunks of the market and worst of all 3) Fortune 500 companies are NOT upgrading to VISTA. That all adds up to a big ol' hurtin' for MS market share AND their "mind share".

Yes they have the money to withstand it and they are not going away anytime soon BUT you may see them end up like Novell. On the Server end of the market Novell used to be THE OS to know. Now...they are a walking corpse in comparison. How good will Ubuntu be in another 3 years (or pick your fav *NIX distro)? Look how far they have come in such a short time.

IF critical mass can be reached computer hardware & software companies will start taking the lil guys seriously and start developing good drivers for it. When that happens MS's biggest weapon (their "mind-share" i.e. the fact that everyone knows MS is the only "serious" OS for PCs) will disappear. Everyone loves to hate MS and if that paradigm shift does happen MS's next, NEXT OS maybe DOA.

Then it will be "Welcome to the brave new world"....all over again.

Of course maybe I'm just getting pessimistic in my old age; but many companies (especially top down companies like MS) have a hard time surviving when their "creator" retires.
QFT

Everyone is relying on SP1 for Vista to bring it around and make it smarten up but I don't know if that will actually happen due to so many people being VERY unhappy with Vista and I think its going to take more than that for people to want to switch. I can't count on a given day how many people come into my store and say "I'm looking for a laptop without Vista" or "I'm wanting to buy a new computer but am curious if I can still get Windows XP" because of all the negative feedback they've heard from a friend or on through other means of sources.

Of course when you tell them that in 3-4 years Microsoft is planning to release yet another OS to replace Vista that makes them even more reluctant to upgrade to Vista because they have to learn Vista and then learn yet another OS? To a customer that is totally unacceptable because the transition from Windows 95 to Windows XP was a easy one and wasn't much of a learning curve, but XP to Vista was like needing to retrain with training wheels; especially for me after doing this for 15 yrs.

Personally I'm glad Ubuntu has done as well as it has in the last year and that more and more people are willing to get their feet wet and experiment and at LEAST try something new and hope that mindset keeps going to do as Akg said; make developers realize that you know what, maybe that free OS is good after all so lets start developing more for it!
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AkG View Post
Fast forward to 2008 and you have 1) Apple taking chunks out of MS's market share 2) 101 different Linuix's all taking small chunks of the market and worst of all 3) Fortune 500 companies are NOT upgrading to VISTA. That all adds up to a big ol' hurtin' for MS market share AND their "mind share".
1. Apple has not taken any sizable amount of marketshare from Microsoft, what they have is a "niche".

2. Do you have any stats to show the difference in desktop market share for Linux in 2001 when XP was launched opposed to now? It's the same situation

3. I can't argue# 3 much, although fortune 500 companies did not upgrade to XP immediately either. At my work (Bell Canada), we had a mix of Win2K and XP up until about 2 years ago.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 12:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DurkaDurka View Post
1. Apple has not taken any sizable amount of marketshare from Microsoft, what they have is a "niche".

2. Do you have any stats to show the difference in desktop market share for Linux in 2001 when XP was launched opposed to now? It's the same situation

3. I can't argue# 3 much, although fortune 500 companies did not upgrade to XP immediately either. At my work (Bell Canada), we had a mix of Win2K and XP up until about 2 years ago.
1) That niche has shrunk due to pcs being able to run mac os x now and os x able to run Windows so its basically come down to a; do you want to spend $1300 on a shiny white computer or $800 on the same thing with the same performance?

2) Linux in regards to drivers and development maybe in the same situation as it was when XP was released but in no way is it in the same situation with users and publicity now. Ubuntu has turned many people towards it and many have switched to it so linux is making headway just not as fast as some people would like or wish it to.

3) Big companies don't want to spend huge amounts of money upgrading to Vista to get worse performance and unquestionable stability. When your company needs stability you'll go with what works; Win2k or WinXP and thats exactly what people do!

Don't forget with Vista you hve to re-train people to learn it due to a whole new learning curve behind it!
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Old December 20, 2007, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by enaberif View Post
1) That niche has shrunk due to pcs being able to run mac os x now and os x able to run Windows so its basically come down to a; do you want to spend $1300 on a shiny white computer or $800 on the same thing with the same performance?

2) Linux in regards to drivers and development maybe in the same situation as it was when XP was released but in no way is it in the same situation with users and publicity now. Ubuntu has turned many people towards it and many have switched to it so linux is making headway just not as fast as some people would like or wish it to.

3) Big companies don't want to spend huge amounts of money upgrading to Vista to get worse performance and unquestionable stability. When your company needs stability you'll go with what works; Win2k or WinXP and thats exactly what people do!

Don't forget with Vista you hve to re-train people to learn it due to a whole new learning curve behind it!
1. Regardless of the hardware, Mac sales have not significantly increased in the past 10 years, Apple isn't even a computer company anymore per se, they sell entertainment devices.

2. I agree Ubuntu has made great strides, the market share they have taken though has been a horizontal shift from other Linux distros.

3. You will never find a corporation that immediately upgrades to the last greatest OS. Corporations almost always wait for the first service pack to come out and then extensively test it with the software they use, so it's a little premature to discredit corporations for not embracing Vista yet, although I don't see them rushing to it anytime soon.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 01:01 PM
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Totally agree on #1 but I think thats because Apples are like Linux and only certain people use them. I personally steer people away from them when they say "I don't know whether I should go mac or pc"
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Old December 20, 2007, 01:08 PM
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OK that is a pretty funny "upgrade" story and all too true for many people.

A new OS in three years is a good thing IMO and is not the reason people are holding off on Vista. People are holding off on Vista because it is just not a good enough "upgrade" from XP with a serious learning curve to boot. Couple that with compatibility issues, hardware requirements etc... You know the drill.

MS used to release an OS every 3 years before XP. It's about time they got around to that schedule again. Vista is WAY overdue as far as OS releases are concerned.

My wife works for a huge Architecture & Engineering firm, they just upgraded to XP in 2007. The cost and logistics of a firm upgrading their networks, machines, internal systems etc... is huge. There is absolutely no reason for a large business to do this with a brand new OS no matter how good or bad it is. They won't upgrade until it makes sense to upgrade. Sometimes even wait till it's a little late (as in the case of my wife's firm).

I highly doubt SP1 for Vista is going to be its saving grace. As far as I can tell it's only going to be a roll up of all the fixes/updates since launch with little addressing all the gripes people have with Vista.

Linux is still a geeks OS even with all it's pretty GUIs. Until I don't have to spend a day installing an app, Linux will be very niche. Yes you can buy a machine off the shelf from Dell with Linux installed already but it is far from mainstream.

Apple's market share is growing but not as astronomically as people might think despite all the hype and commercials. It's probably somewhere around 6-7% right now. And I would expect it to continue to grow but MS is still very much taking the lion's share.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 01:09 PM
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I don't know whether I should go mac or pc"
Just tell them to watch those obnoxious mac commercials and make their minds up for them selves.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old December 20, 2007, 01:38 PM
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Sorry Thunderball linux is not a geeks OS as many people who are far from geeks are trying out Ubuntu to realize how much they actually like it :)

Maybe Gentoo or Slackware is for geeks, but definitely not Ubuntu.
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