It's DX compatible API, it should still work regardless but with added performance / options for the devs to optimize better for GCN cards.
If mantle is widely adopted, then yea, they will have a very firm grip of the console market and make huge bounds in PC too. But that's a big if.
They also have to keep the support level high and have a quality non-buggy product.. which to me they haven't proved they can do in some time.
Nvidia won't be able to license it unless they totally re-design their architecture. It relies on the hardware.
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