SSD price drop... for real this time?
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August 29, 2010, 12:22 PM
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by
Honestly, I can see either a mild or a moderate price drop happening within a years time (more nand factories coming online, older ones being paid off yet still pumping out nand, etc etc) ....but I dont see a huge 50-75% drop. They have to retool for higher density production fairly often and those costs are big. Not cost of a factory big...but big. I can also see SSD makers milking any cost savings for all its worth and only slowly passing the savings down to us. Its still a niche product and thus they want to make as much profit as possible per customer.
My guess we are going to look back at SSD prices and think of the cycle of RAM pricing.
Anyone remember the days of OMFG expensive ram? And how it didnt chage over night; rather declined a bit...went up a bit....declined even more...went up....etc etc till we got to the point where they are "cheap" and it had more to do with density of a chip rather then price per CHIP cost. The more they can squeeze on to one chip...the better prices will get "overall".
Good 30-40GBers dropped 40 bucks in a bout a year to the magic 100'ish buck mark. Most likely we will see "good" 50-64gb'ers hit that price within 4 - 6 Qs. UNLESS Apple or another big player sucks the market dry again, that was one of the big reasons we didnt see a very big price drop the last time...NAND demand outstripped production....and nand makers laughed all the way to the bank :/
I remember the collusion and price fixing cartel in the RAM market, not sure how one could ascertain market pressures within that.
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